I know you are thinking "Of course they do silly" but I wanted to share this last response paper written for my Political Behavior class anyways.
The class left me with this important question that I very much care about: Does campaigning matter? A quick review of many predictive models used by political scientists to determine the outcome of a race focus on non-campaign
effects, such as overall preferences towards a particular party, incumbency, economic metrics and other factors that a political candidate and their campaigns have little to no influence over. However, there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel.
Downs’ Economic Theory of Democracy argues that voters are rational actors and thus will vote for a candidate who will provide the voter with the most utility. This would assume that the voter is able to determine which candidate this would be, despite the likely use of information shortcuts, the costs to gather the information, and the potential that information used to weigh the decision is correct and truthful. With this in mind, a candidate needs to campaign in order for people to understand that only by voting for them will the voter be able to maximize their utility. However, this theory also promotes the value of deceiving potential voters, so that they by putting a particular candidate in office they would be maximizing their utility when in reality they may not be. Clearly then, campaigns exist to trick voters into voting more than to inform the public.
So then, who is responsible for helping to inform the public and ensuring good information? One might be quick to think of the media for this job. While there is a constant belief of media and elite opinion influencing the public, course readings have yet to show that the effect is anywhere near as strong as popular opinion would suggest. Gelman and King believe that the news media play a critical role in enabling voter to make decisions based on the “equivalent of explicitly enlightened preferences,” but that they waste their ability by focusing on polls and campaign events rather than the issues.
The information shortcut of political parties seems to provide some help with the issue, but even parties change over time and the people often take a long time to realize this. In addition to their conclusions on the importance of party in the voting decision, Miller and Shanks provide a very important key to the puzzle of the value of campaigns; campaigns are for activating. In other words, the value of the political campaign may not be to convert a person to the candidate’s views on an issue, but rather to entice and excite people who hold those views already to vote for the candidate in order to maximize their own utility.
It would appear that voters must rely upon the
media of the campaigns themselves for the information needed. However, the theory of issue ownership implies that candidates will only inform on the issues they feel that the public would be on their side about. Thus, a voter only gets to know what benefits each side will bring but not about the deficits to the voters utility. Kaplan et al. point out that candidates do converge, at least some times, and thus provide the voting public with the exact information they need; both candidates views on the same issue, in order to determine which candidate would provide for the most utility.
So campaigns do matter, assuming voters are paying attention, and act based on the information they gather while avoiding influence of irrational information (information that will not allow maximization of utility) towards one candidate or the other along the way. While this theory, much like Downs’ is relatively difficult to test, further exploration of campaign effects may shed more light on the subject. Nevertheless, for now, it is safe to say, that candidates still need to campaign should they expect to win elections.
If you want more info on the subject...