What is Alan Doing Right Now?

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Energy & The Economy with Christopher Marciano: T. Boone Pickens

T. Boone Pickens, famed oilman, has launched a media blitz touting his Pickens Plan (http://www.pickensplan.com/theplan) as the way for the future in energy and a way to break our dependence on foreign oil. So I decided to give it a look. Considering almost no oil is used for electricity production, how will adding wind turbines effect dependence on oil? Pickens envisions that up to 20% of electricity can come from wind. This would offset an equal amount of gas fired generation. Then the natural gas that would have gone into electricity generation could be used to power cars, which offsets demand in oil.

Before we go into the analysis let’s discuss how electric generation operates. People’s usage of electricity changes dramatically over the course of a day and from season to season. From 2am to 2pm, the usage of electricity will increase by about 60-80%. As the day comes and people go to their jobs, the demand for electricity increases. So in order to meet that rise in demand, some power plants that are operating at a lower capacity will be “turned up” and others must be turned on. Of the power plants that must be turned on, only some certain types can start rather quickly….and these are mostly natural gas. The power plants that don’t shut off during the night are your coal and nuclear plants.

The Problems

Pickens wants to take $1.2 trillion and replace natural gas power plants with wind. The wind is fickle and often blows the most at night. Adding wind generation may not displace much gas generation, but the nuclear and coal plants that are operating at night.

The plan would still need to have combustion turbines to back up the wind generation or Americans must change their views about reliability. Texas only considers 8.7% of wind capacity, dependable. That means that if an area has 1000 megawatts (MW) of demand, you would need at least 11,500 MW of wind turbine capacity in order for you be confident your lights turn on when you flick the switch.

Another consideration is, why not nuclear? If you are trying to displace the gas generation that is operating around the clock, why try to displace that with wind, but rather than nuclear? Nuclear is much more dependable, fuel costs are minimal, and the emission are zero.

There are a couple of other temporary problems such as the fact that turbine manufacturers are at capacity and that there is a poor distribution for natural gas for cars. Now if a government is committed to spending over 1 trillion, then manufacturers could add capacity at a price and you would see natural gas stations spring up. One might also be able to tap into the supply at home if you have natural gas heating.

What I liked

He “got the white off the paper.” He also presented his plan with detail and a degree of logic.

T Boone was rather realistic about costs. A 3 MW turbine will cost about $6-7 million. The $1.2 trillion included $200 billion in costs for transmission. When electricity is generated in the middle of nowhere, it must be transmitted to the cities. This can be expensive! He did, however, ignore the cost of backup capacity or the cost escalation that would be seen if demand for turbines skyrocketed.

The idea of displacing gas generation, even if it is not quite as ambitious, isn’t awful. If 10% of gas generation per year could be displaced somehow (combination of wind & nuclear) that could be used to fuel about 10 million cars.

The Gore Plan -

Not to be outdone, Al Gore released a statement saying the US electric generation should be completely Earth-friendly by 2018. He estimated the cost between $1.5 trillion and $3 trillion. That’s about all the information that he gives. So Pickens estimates it costs $1.2 trillion for 20% generation to be by wind, and Gore will do 100% for $3 trillion. Essentially Al Gore is just blowing hot air to get attention.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

When is Sex Ok?

Sex... its a taboo subject for some to talk about and for others to engage in... not for me or this blog of course! Do you ever wonder how far is "too far"? Lets look at through the views of science, international affairs, diplomatic blunders and local oddities...

A recent study has shown that fatty foods may be dangerous to sperm production. Previously it was discovered that obesity is know to decrease women's fertility as well. When you put this together, its clear now why the birth rate for us overindulgent westerners is so much lower than the starving people in third world countries (now called "developing nations" thanks to political correctness). Taken another way you could just eat more McDonald's and invest less in condoms!

The International Criminal Court is going after Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir accusing him of Genocide through means of murder, rape and deportation.. making this the first time prosecutors have issued charges against a sitting head of state. The prosecutor said, "The genocide is ongoing... systematic rape is a key element of the campaign." One victim said rape is woven into the fabric of life in Darfur, and they produce a generation of so-called "janjaweed babies" and lead to an explosion of infanticide by victims. In case this wasn't clear... this is when sex is NOT okay.

Meanwhile, a former U.S. diplomat was convicted of having sex, and taping it, with 14-17 year old girls in Congo and Brazil. His defense is that cultural differences led him to believe that sexual contact with teenage girls was acceptable, specifically claiming, "In the Congo, women develop quickly, both physically and emotionally, due to the substantial responsibility society places on them from early childhood. ... In Kinshasa, the vast majority of teenagers are sexually active with men that are substantially older. ... Their main concern is marrying young girls to men with financial stability, a concern dating thousands of years and cutting across cultural lines." I'm waiting for the excuse that they had "Juicy" written across the ass on their shorts.

Three men, carrying shovels, a crowbar and a box of condoms, went to a cemetery...

The Wisconsin state Supreme Court ruled against three men accused of digging up a corpse so one of them could have sex with it... because the corpse was unable to give consent. With this in mind, is it sexual assault if the sex toy does not give consent? While the justice writing the majority opinion said, state law bans sexual intercourse with anyone who does not give consent "whether a victim is dead or alive at the time" the two dissenting justices insisted that lawmakers did not mean to ban necrophilia but to allow assault charges when someone was raped and then killed.

On a totally unrelated side note, other then the sexual innuendo, interesting to note that The Big Easy is the fastest growing city right now...

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

World Heritage is a Terrible Thing to Waste

Fortunately, for 27 places around the globe, that shouldn’t be an issue as they’ve just been added to UNESCO’s list of World Heritage Sites. Named during the organization’s World Heritage Committee meeting, now taking place in Quebec City, they’re the latest additions to a roster that recognizes places with outstanding natural or cultural value.

The World Heritage List includes 878 properties forming part of the cultural and natural heritage which the World Heritage Committee considers as having outstanding universal value.

These include 679 cultural , 174 natural and 25 mixed properties in 145 States Parties. As of November 2007, 185 States Parties have ratified the World Heritage Convention.


Afghanistan

Albania

Algeria

Andorra

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Austria

Azerbaijan

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Belarus

Belgium

Belize

Benin

Bolivia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Botswana

Brazil

Bulgaria

Cambodia

Cameroon

Canada

Central African Republic

Chile

China

Colombia

Costa Rica

Côte d'Ivoire

Croatia

Cuba

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Denmark

Dominica

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Egypt

El Salvador

Estonia

Ethiopia

Finland

France

Gabon

Gambia

Georgia

Germany

Ghana

Greece

Guatemala

Guinea

Haiti

Holy See

Honduras

Hungary

Iceland

India

Indonesia

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Iraq

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Jerusalem (Site proposed by Jordan)

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Kenya